Why returns spike after holidays and big shopping events

The week after Christmas, return centers are flooded. Black Friday returns pour in. Holiday return spikes are predictable and significant. This guide explains why returns spike after holidays and big shopping events, and what this means for shoppers and retailers.

The Return Spike Pattern

Post-Holiday Surge

Timing:

• Week after Christmas: Peak
• January: High volume
• Post-Thanksgiving: Significant
• After major sales: Increase
• Predictable pattern

Volume: 2-3x normal return volume typically.

Why It Happens

Reasons:

• Gift returns
• Impulse purchases
• Changed minds
• Wrong sizes
• Defective items
• Holiday shopping patterns

Result: Perfect storm of return triggers.

Reason 1: Gift Returns

The Gift Return Cycle

How it works:

• Gifts received
• Some don't fit/want
• Return after holidays
• Get what you actually want
• Common practice

Volume: 30-40% of holiday returns are gifts.

Gift Return Patterns

Timing:

• Start December 26
• Peak first week January
• Continue through January
• Extended windows help
• Manageable flow

Result: Predictable surge after holidays.

Reason 2: Impulse Purchases

Holiday Impulse Buying

Why it happens:

• Sales pressure
• Limited time offers
• Holiday excitement
• Emotional buying
• Less research

Result: More purchases that don't work out.

Post-Purchase Regret

What happens:

• Excitement fades
• Reality sets in
• Item not needed
• Return decision
• Return spike

Result: Impulse purchases lead to returns.

Reason 3: Changed Minds

Post-Holiday Reflection

Process:

• Holiday shopping done
• Time to reflect
• Realize don't need items
• Changed priorities
• Return decision

Result: Changed minds create returns.

Budget Reality

Impact:

• Holiday spending done
• Budget reality
• Return items
• Get money back
• Financial management

Result: Budget concerns drive returns.

Reason 4: Size and Fit Issues

Gift Sizing Problems

Common issue:

• Gifts wrong size
• Can't try on
• Size guessing
• Common problem
• Major return reason

Volume: 20-30% of returns are size-related.

Apparel Returns

Holiday pattern:

• Lots of clothing gifts
• Size issues common
• Major return category
• Predictable surge
• Common problem

Result: Apparel returns spike significantly.

Reason 5: Defective Items

Quality Issues

Holiday factor:

• High volume production
• Quality may suffer
• Rush manufacturing
• More defects
• Higher return rate

Result: More defective items during holidays.

Testing After Holidays

Pattern:

• Receive gifts
• Test items
• Find defects
• Return items
• Common cycle

Result: Defect returns after holidays.

Reason 6: Extended Return Windows

Holiday Return Policies

Common practice:

• Extended return windows
• Through January
• More time to return
• Less pressure
• Encourages returns

Impact: Extended windows spread out returns but increase total.

Customer Behavior

Effect:

• Less urgency
• More time to decide
• Higher return rate
• Spread out timing
• Manageable flow

Result: More returns, but spread over time.

Retailer Response

Preparation

How retailers prepare:

• Increase staffing
• Expand facilities
• Prepare systems
• Plan for surge
• Manage volume

Result: Better handling of surge.

Processing Delays

Reality:

• Higher volume
• Longer processing
• May take longer
• Still processed
• Temporary delay

Impact: Slightly longer processing during surge.

Extended Windows

Strategy:

• Extended return windows
• Spread out returns
• Manage flow
• Reduce rush
• Better experience

Result: More manageable return flow.

Impact on Shoppers

Processing Times

During surge:

• May take longer
• 5-7 business days
• Instead of 3-5
• Temporary delay
• Still processed

Impact: Slightly longer waits during peak.

Wait Times

At locations:

• Longer lines
• More crowded
• Busier times
• May wait longer
• Temporary

Impact: Longer waits at drop-off locations.

Best Practices

For shoppers:

• Return promptly if possible
• Use pickup services
• Avoid peak times
• Be patient
• Plan ahead

Result: Better experience during surge.

The Numbers

Return Volume

Normal periods:

• 10-15% return rate
• Standard volume
• Manageable
• Normal flow

Holiday periods:

• 20-30% return rate
• 2-3x normal
• Significant surge
• High volume

Impact: Major volume increase.

Timing

Peak timing:

• December 26: Starts
• January 2-8: Peak
• January: High
• February: Normalizes
• Predictable

Pattern: Predictable surge pattern.

Managing the Surge

For Shoppers

Strategies:

• Return early if possible
• Use pickup services
• Avoid peak times
• Be patient
• Plan ahead

Result: Better experience.

For Retailers

Strategies:

• Prepare for surge
• Increase capacity
• Extend windows
• Better systems
• Manage flow

Result: Better handling.

The Bottom Line

Returns spike after holidays and big shopping events due to gift returns, impulse purchases, changed minds, size issues, defective items, and extended return windows. This creates a predictable surge that retailers prepare for, but can still cause delays for shoppers.

The key for shoppers is understanding the pattern and planning accordingly: return early if possible, use pickup services to avoid lines, and be patient during peak periods. For retailers, preparation and extended windows help manage the surge.

The pattern is predictable and manageable, but it's important to understand why it happens and how to navigate it effectively.

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