Why People Underestimate Errand Time (And How to Fix It)

People consistently underestimate how long errands take. A "quick" return trip that should take 30 minutes actually takes 90. Understanding why this happens and how to fix it helps you plan better and make smarter decisions about outsourcing.

The Planning Fallacy

What It Is

The Phenomenon:

• People underestimate task duration
• Even when they know better
• Consistently optimistic
• Common cognitive bias

With Errands:

• Think: "30 minutes"
• Reality: 90 minutes
• Consistently wrong
• Pattern persists

Why It Happens

Optimistic Thinking:

• Focus on best-case scenario
• Ignore potential delays
• Assume everything goes smoothly
• Unrealistic expectations

Memory Bias:

• Remember smooth experiences
• Forget frustrating ones
• Recall best times
• Distorted memory

Present Bias:

• Current state feels good
• Future seems easier
• Discount difficulties
• Underestimate challenges

The Errand Time Reality

What People Think

Common Estimates:

• "Just 30 minutes"
• "Quick trip"
• "Won't take long"
• "Be back soon"

The Optimism:

• Best-case thinking
• Smooth scenario
• No delays
• Unrealistic

What Actually Happens

Real Time:

• Preparation: 15 minutes
• Drive: 20 minutes (with traffic)
• Parking: 5 minutes
• Wait: 25 minutes (line)
• Process: 5 minutes
• Return: 20 minutes
• Total: 90 minutes

The Reality:

• Traffic happens
• Lines exist
• Delays occur
• Takes longer

Why Estimates Are Wrong

Factor 1: Traffic Optimism

The Thinking:

• "Traffic won't be bad"
• "It's not rush hour"
• "Short distance"
• Optimistic

The Reality:

• Traffic unpredictable
• Often worse than expected
• Adds 10-20 minutes
• Underestimated

Factor 2: Line Optimism

The Thinking:

• "Won't be busy"
• "Quick in and out"
• "No line"
• Optimistic

The Reality:

• Lines common
• 20-45 minutes typical
• Adds significant time
• Underestimated

Factor 3: Parking Optimism

The Thinking:

• "Parking easy"
• "Find spot quickly"
• "No problem"
• Optimistic

The Reality:

• Parking challenges
• 5-10 minutes common
• Adds time
• Underestimated

Factor 4: Process Optimism

The Thinking:

• "Simple process"
• "Quick transaction"
• "No complications"
• Optimistic

The Reality:

• Complications happen
• Takes longer
• Adds time
• Underestimated

The Time Gap

Estimated vs. Actual

People Estimate:

• 30-45 minutes
• Optimistic thinking
• Best-case scenario

Actual Time:

• 75-130 minutes
• Realistic experience
• Typical scenario

Gap: 45-85 minutes underestimated

How to Fix It

Method 1: Track Actual Time

The Process:

• Time your errands
• Record actual duration
• Build database
• Use real data

The Benefit:

• Accurate estimates
• Realistic planning
• Better decisions
• Improved accuracy

Method 2: Add Buffer Time

The Rule:

• Double your estimate
• Or add 50%
• Build in buffer
• Plan for delays

The Benefit:

• More realistic
• Less stress
• Better planning
• Accurate expectations

Method 3: Use Historical Data

The Process:

• Review past errands
• Average actual times
• Use for planning
• Realistic estimates

The Benefit:

• Data-driven
• More accurate
• Better planning
• Realistic expectations

Method 4: Outsource

The Solution:

• Eliminate errands
• No time estimation needed
• No planning required
• Problem solved

The Benefit:

• No estimation errors
• No time surprises
• Predictable
• Reliable

The Impact of Accurate Estimates

Better Planning

With Accurate Estimates:

• Realistic schedules
• Better time management
• Less stress
• Improved planning

The Benefit:

• More productive
• Less rushed
• Better life
• Success

Better Decisions

With Accurate Estimates:

• Understand true cost
• Make informed choices
• Better decisions
• Smarter outsourcing

The Benefit:

• Better economics
• Smarter choices
• Improved life
• Success

Real-World Examples

Example 1: The Optimistic Planner

The Estimate:

• "30 minutes for return"
• Plans accordingly
• Schedules tight

The Reality:

• Actually takes 90 minutes
• Schedule disrupted
• Stress increases
• Poor planning

The Fix:

• Track actual time
• Use real data
• Plan realistically
• Or outsource

Example 2: The Realistic Planner

The Estimate:

• "90 minutes for return"
• Plans with buffer
• Schedules appropriately

The Reality:

• Takes 90 minutes
• Schedule works
• No stress
• Good planning

The Fix:

• Continue realistic planning
• Or outsource for efficiency
• Better choices
• Success

The Bottom Line

People underestimate errand time by 45-85 minutes due to planning fallacy, optimistic thinking, and memory bias. This leads to poor planning, stress, and bad decisions.

The fix is to track actual time, add buffer time, use historical data, or outsource. Accurate estimates lead to better planning and smarter decisions. Outsourcing eliminates the estimation problem entirely.

If you're consistently underestimating errand time, start tracking actual durations or consider outsourcing. Accurate time estimates lead to better planning and smarter life choices.

Ready to fix your time estimates? Check Returnful's service and eliminate the estimation problem.

---

Tired of underestimating errand time? Text us at 469-790-7579 to eliminate the problem with pickup services!